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Real GDP rose q/q +0.3% (annualized +1.3%). Capex led with +1.3%; net external demand was neutral as exports/imports both -0.3%. BOJ continues normalization amid easing CPI.
BOJ Statements of Account at end-Feb 2026: JGS holdings ¥546.7tr (12-month cumulative -¥41.8tr). Current account ratio fell to 67.4%. Passive QT has accelerated.
JGB yields fell across the curve; 10Y-2Y spread narrowed 11.4bps. Nominal yield decline reduced fiscal costs amid improving coincident index and firm DI.
BOJ reports Feb 2026 monetary base at 580.9 trillion yen, down 10.6% YoY. Call rate at 0.728% as normalization advances; BOJ Tankan shows improvement in manufacturers.
Assessing the BOJ Statements of Account data gap in Feb 2026 using the Jan 2026 balance sheet: JGS growth, liquidity metrics, and normalization prospects.
US Treasury yields fell across the curve; 10Y-2Y spread narrowed to 60bp. ECB balance sheet shrank 0.88% while FRB expanded 0.40%.
In Jan 2026 CPI slowed to 1.5% YoY improving real wages; unemployment 2.4% and job-to-applicant ratio 1.19 show a stable labor market. Spring wage talks are key.
Dec 2025 employment: unemployment 2.4%, job-to-applicant ratio 1.19, nominal wage index 112.9. CPI slowdown improves real wage environment.
US yield curve is steepening while the Euro area and Japan undergo gradual rate normalization. Three central banks' balance sheets total $13.38 trillion; money supply growth in US/EU remains near 4%.
BOJ balance sheet in Jan 2026: total assets ¥682.9 trillion, JGS holdings up ¥1.2 trillion to ¥545.6 trillion. Quantitative assessment of QQE exit and asset composition changes.
Jan 2026 CPI: headline +1.5%, core CPI +2.0% slowed; core‑core CPI remains high at +2.6%. Examines BOJ target gap, CGPI pass‑through, and real purchasing power.
JGB 10Y yield 2.247%, real rate 0.747% positive. 30Y-10Y spread 1.330% as ultra-long yields surge, signaling fiscal cost pressure.
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