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CGPI surge and re-acceleration of core inflation signal structural inflationary pressure; call rate unchanged while upstream pass-through and improving corporate sentiment point to continued normalization.

Real GDP rose +0.5% QoQ (annualized +1.8%) in Jan–Mar 2026, driven by a large export increase; private capex fell -0.7% QoQ, highlighting domestic demand fragility.

BOJ total assets ¥664.4 trillion; JGS holdings down ¥47.6 trillion y/y. Current account ratio fell to 68.0%, accelerating liquidity reduction. Quantitative assessment of 2026 QT slowdown.

Unemployment fell to 2.7% in April 2026, but the nominal wage index was flat at 114.9. Real-wage conditions improved as CPI inflation eased, yet wage momentum slowed.

BOJ Statements of Account (end‑May 2026): JGS holdings ¥533.1tr (+¥1.2tr m/m). 12‑month QT pace ¥47.6tr. Current account ratio down to 68.0%.

10Y JGB yield rose to 2.657%; real rate reached 1.257%, signaling easing of financial repression. Continued bear steepening increases fiscal cost pressure.

BOJ's May monetary base was ¥575.8tr (-1.2% m/m, -12.2% y/y). Call rate 0.727%. Quantitative tightening continues as corporate sentiment improves.

US 10Y 4.45%, Euro area 3.035% and US‑EU 10Y gap widened to 141.5bp. ECB deposit‑2Y gap -53bp; FRB balance sheet +0.07% slowdown. Asymmetric central bank stances analyzed.

The MIC-released April 2026 unemployment rate was 2.7%, improving 0.1pt from March. Shows reversal from March peak but remains above the 12-month average.

Apr 2026 CPI slowed to 1.4% YoY (headline and core). Core-core at 1.9% while BOJ's CGPI recorded a sharp month-on-month surge, highlighting competing inflation forces.

Real GDP grew QoQ +0.5% (annualized +2.1%) in 2026 Q1, led by a large export increase; consumption, business investment and public demand all contributed positively.

With the call rate held at 0.727%, USD/JPY moved to 159.3 and CGPI jumped 3.3 points while CPI slowed to 1.5%. Structural contradictions and policy dilemmas analyzed.