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40882025 Q1PrimeIFRS

AIR WATER (4088) FY2025 Q1 Earnings Report

For FY2025 Q1, revenue came to ¥234.7B (+6.9% year on year) and operating loss ¥37.2B. The segment drivers and cash flow follow.

AIR WATER INC.

Raw Materials & Chemicals/Chemicals


Quick View

MetricCurrent PeriodSame Period Prior YearYoY
Revenue¥2347.0B¥2195.0B+6.9%
Operating Income−¥371.6B¥625.4B−3.9%
Profit Before Tax¥131.9B¥134.9B−2.2%
Net Income¥82.6B¥85.3B−3.2%
ROE1.8%1.9%-

Executive Summary

Despite higher revenue, the Company posted a significant operating loss, with the key feature being higher revenue but lower profit, including a shift to an operating loss. Revenue increased to ¥2347.0B (+6.9% YoY), while Operating Income fell to ¥-371.6B, a significant deterioration from ¥625.4B in the same period of the prior year. Net Income was ¥82.6B (-3.2% YoY), and although the Company secured positive Profit Before Tax and Net Income despite the operating loss, it should be noted that these results include the effects of equity-method income/loss and tax burdens. The primary factors were impairment losses of approximately ¥1080B, mainly in the Digital & Industry segment, and a sharp increase in other expenses, indicating a significant impact from one-time factors.

Factors Affecting Results

【Revenue】Revenue increased 6.9% YoY to ¥2347.0B. By segment, Health & Safety expanded to ¥513.2B (+4.5%), Energy Solutions to ¥148.9B (+7.7%), and Agri & Foods to ¥365.5B (+12.7%), while Digital & Industry, the largest segment, declined to ¥783.3B (-3.2%).

【Profit and Loss】Operating Income fell into a loss of ¥-371.6B from ¥625.4B in the prior year. The primary factor was other expenses of ¥999.9B, including impairment losses of ¥1079.8B, with the one-time recognition of ¥706.5B in impairment losses, particularly in Digital & Industry, having a significant impact. Finance costs also increased substantially YoY to ¥184.9B, weighing on Profit Before Tax. Meanwhile, Net Income was ¥82.6B, down only 3.2% YoY, a smaller decline than the deterioration in operating results, due to a decrease in income taxes and other taxes to ¥148.3B, a significant reduction YoY, as well as the effects of nonrecurring items. Overall, the Company recorded higher revenue but lower profit, including an operating loss, and its underlying earnings power excluding temporary impairment factors needs to be assessed.

Segment Analysis

Digital & Industry reported revenue of ¥783.3B (-3.2%) and Operating Income of ¥60.1B (+14.5%), indicating higher profit based on the disclosed data. However, based on the actual amounts provided in the qualitative information, the segment recorded a loss of ¥408.9B and impairment losses of ¥706.5B, making it the central driver of the deterioration in consolidated results after impairment recognition. Energy Solutions posted higher revenue and profit, with revenue of ¥148.9B (+7.7%) and Operating Income of ¥9.6B (+34.0%). Health & Safety recorded revenue of ¥513.2B (+4.5%), but Operating Income declined 37.7% to ¥23.9B, indicating that growth has not translated into profit. Agri & Foods maintained higher revenue and profit, with revenue of ¥365.5B (+12.7%) and Operating Income of ¥18.3B (+27.4%).

Key Financial Indicators

【Profitability】The Operating Margin was -15.8%, a significant deterioration from approximately 10.4% in the prior year, primarily due to the recognition of large-scale impairment losses. The Net Profit Margin remained positive at 3.5%, but the structure indicates that the operating loss was offset by equity-method income/loss and tax burden adjustments.【Cash Flow Quality】Operating Cash Flow (OCF) was ¥1075.8B, significantly exceeding Net Income of ¥82.6B. However, this was supported by the addition of ¥1079.8B in impairment losses, a non-cash expense, and a ¥265.97B cash inflow from the decrease in trade receivables, making its nature different from the ordinary profit-to-cash conversion rate.【Investment Efficiency】ROE was low at 1.8%, reflecting low asset turnover and impaired earnings power amid the operating loss.【Financial Soundness】The Equity Ratio improved to 36.6% from 35.5% in the prior year, but total interest-bearing debt, including current and non-current liabilities, reached ¥4684.6B, while Finance Costs of ¥184.9B represented a heavy burden amid the operating loss.

Cash Flow Analysis

Operating Cash Flow (OCF) increased 16.0% YoY to ¥1075.8B. Investment Cash Flow was ¥-886.1B and Financing Cash Flow was ¥-57.1B, resulting in positive Free Cash Flow of ¥189.7B. The increase in OCF was primarily attributable to the addition of ¥1079.8B in impairment losses, a non-cash expense, and a ¥265.97B cash inflow from the decrease in trade receivables; it should be noted that this does not indicate ordinary profit-generating capacity. Investment Cash Flow included capital expenditures of ¥736.1B and the acquisition of shares in subsidiaries of ¥257.9B, indicating active investment activity. In Financing Cash Flow, dividend payments of ¥184.6B were the primary outflow, while the increase in short-term borrowings of ¥622.6B supplemented funding, suggesting that the Company was unable to fully cover investment and dividends solely through Free Cash Flow.

Earnings Quality

The current period’s results fluctuated significantly due to the large-scale one-time factor of ¥1079.8B in impairment losses and should be evaluated separately from recurring earnings power. Other expenses surged to ¥999.9B from ¥94.1B in the prior year, becoming the primary cause of the operating loss, while Finance Costs also increased to ¥184.9B from ¥57.8B in the prior year, weighing on Profit Before Tax. Against an Operating Loss of ¥-371.6B, Profit Before Tax turned positive at ¥131.9B and Net Income was ¥82.6B, supported by income taxes and other taxes declining to ¥148.3B from ¥218.98B in the prior year. Comprehensive Income was ¥272.9B, exceeding Net Income of ¥82.6B, while the portion attributable to owners of the parent was ¥-297.2B, diverging in the opposite direction from Net Income. Capital-related items such as foreign currency translation adjustments and valuation adjustments on other marketable securities increased Comprehensive Income and should therefore be treated separately when assessing recurring earnings power.

Earnings Forecast and Guidance

The full-year forecast calls for Revenue of ¥11000B, Operating Income of ¥780B (+32.2% YoY), EPS of ¥218.88, and dividends of ¥64, with no revisions to either the earnings or dividend forecasts. Compared with the current-period results of revenue of ¥2347.0B and an operating loss of ¥371.6B, revenue progress was approximately 21.3%, slightly below the standard Q1 progress rate of 25%. Since Operating Income was negative, calculating the progress rate is difficult. Achievement of the full-year plan presupposes the resolution of temporary factors such as impairment losses and a significant normalization of Operating Income toward the second half of the fiscal year.

Shareholder Returns

Dividend payments during the current period were ¥184.6B, resulting in a Payout Ratio of approximately 223% against Net Income of ¥82.6B. Share repurchases were virtually zero at ¥-0.03B, and the difference between the Total Return Ratio and the Payout Ratio was limited. The full-year forecast indicates dividends of ¥64 and forecast Net Income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥500B. If profit recovers in line with the Company’s plan, the Payout Ratio is expected to improve significantly. Current dividends are covered within the range of OCF and FCF, but dividend capacity on a Net Income basis is limited, requiring close monitoring of the progress of earnings recovery.

Risk Factors

  1. Asset Impairment Risk: The Company recognized impairment losses of ¥1079.8B during the current period, of which ¥706.5B, or approximately 65% of the total, was recorded in Digital & Industry. Although this is the segment with the highest revenue, it recorded a loss of ¥408.9B based on the qualitative information, necessitating verification of asset profitability, including the possibility of additional impairment losses.

  2. Interest Rate and Borrowing Burden Risk: Bonds and borrowings totaled ¥4684.6B on a combined current and non-current basis, with current borrowings increasing 59.2% YoY to ¥1770.2B. Finance Costs increased to ¥184.9B, and amid the operating loss, the Company is unable to cover Finance Costs with Operating Income.

  3. Trade Receivables and Working Capital Risk: Trade receivables totaled ¥2069.3B, representing 17.3% of total assets. Inventories increased 20.5% from the end of the prior fiscal year to ¥1217.6B, requiring monitoring of inventory levels relative to demand and collection status.

Industry Benchmark (Reference; Compiled by the Company)

Industry Benchmark (manufacturing)

Profitability and Returns

MetricCompanyMedian (IQR)Delta
Operating Margin−15.8%
Net Profit Margin3.5%

Although comparative data with the industry median for Operating Margin is unavailable, the negative level itself indicates a challenging profitability situation.

Growth and Capital Efficiency

MetricCompanyMedian (IQR)Delta
Revenue Growth Rate (YoY)6.9%

The Revenue Growth Rate remained positive at +6.9%, confirming continued top-line expansion.

※Source: Compiled by the Company

Key Points in the Earnings Results

  1. The most notable point in the current period was the shift to an operating loss despite maintaining revenue growth, due to large-scale impairment losses of ¥1079.8B. In particular, the reassessment of asset values in Digital & Industry had a significant impact on consolidated results.

  2. OCF and FCF remained positive, but their composition was supported by the non-cash nature of impairment losses and temporary cash inflows from the decrease in trade receivables. They therefore need to be evaluated separately from recurring cash-generating capacity.

  3. Against the full-year forecast of ¥780B in Operating Income, the Company recorded an operating loss in the current period. Progress toward earnings normalization during the second half of the fiscal year will be an important point to monitor in future earnings results.

Theoretical Share Price (Reference Value)

ScenarioTheoretical Share Price
bear¥2,025
base¥2,086
bull¥2,136
Calculation AssumptionValue
Book Value Per Share (BPS)¥1,917
Adjusted Forecast EPS¥235.3
Cost of Equity r9.27% (10-year Government Bond 2.77% + Equity Risk Premium 6.00% + Size Premium 0.50%)
Persistence Coefficient of Residual Income ω / Explicit Forecast Period0.62 / 5 years
Assumed Payout Ratio29.2%
Forecast EPS Confidence Adjustment×1.075 (based on the track record of guidance achievement in the same industry)
Implied PBR / PER1.09x / 8.9x

Sensitivity: ¥2,027–¥2,148 for Cost of Equity ±1%; ¥2,082–¥2,092 for ω±0.1.

Notes:

  • Net assets as of the quarter-end are used; there is a timing difference relative to the full-year forecast.

(Calculation model: Residual Income Model (Ohlson-type, explicit 5-year fade) / Interest rate reference month: 2026-07 / Mechanically calculated values based solely on publicly disclosed data; these are not forecasts of market share prices or recommendations for specific investment actions, and do not predict or guarantee future share prices.)


This report is an earnings analysis document automatically generated by AI based on XBRL earnings release data. It does not recommend investment in any specific security. The industry benchmarks are reference information compiled by the Company based on publicly disclosed earnings data. Investment decisions should be made at your own responsibility, after consulting professionals as necessary.

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