Mega-bank Earnings: Interest-Rate Effects (FY2025–Q3 FY2026) | IR Tracker

Sector AnalysisAdvanced

Dissecting the Three Mega-Banks: How Rising Rates Clarify Differences in Earnings Structure

XBRL-based comparative analysis of Mizuho, SMFG and MUFG (FY2025 & FY2026 Q3).

IRTracker

February 14, 2026

16 min read

BankingMegaBankEarnings

Table of Contents

Related Columns

Introduction

This article provides a detailed analysis of the financial results for Mizuho Financial Group (8411), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316), and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306), using FY2025 full-year results and FY2026 Q3 cumulative (9-month) financial data. The data source is the TDnet earnings releases in XBRL format, and the comparison is based on objective figures.

As monetary policy shifts, clear differences emerge across the banks in revenue mix and efficiency metrics. We examine the balance between Net Interest Income and fee income, progress on the Overhead Ratio (OHR), loan and deposit growth, and differences in shareholder return policies.

All data used in this article are based on earnings releases published in XBRL format on TDnet. The analysis period covers FY2021–FY2025 full-year results and the FY2026 Q3 cumulative period (9 months).

Industry-wide trend for the three mega-banks

Looking at five-year trends for major consolidated indicators for the three mega-banks combined, the industry-wide growth trend is clear.

Indicator	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2021→2025 CAGR
Ordinary Revenue	¥13.15 trillion	¥14.15 trillion	¥21.20 trillion	¥29.99 trillion	¥32.84 trillion	25.7%
Ordinary Income	¥2.30 trillion	¥3.14 trillion	¥2.97 trillion	¥4.51 trillion	¥5.56 trillion	24.7%
Net Income	¥1.76 trillion	¥2.37 trillion	¥2.48 trillion	¥3.13 trillion	¥3.93 trillion	22.2%
Loans

CAGR = (Ending value / Starting value)^{1/number of years} - 1

Ordinary Revenue expanded about 2.5x over five years, delivering a high annual growth rate of 25.7%. This is largely driven by a sharp increase in Interest Income since FY2023 as market interest rates rose. Ordinary Income CAGR of 24.7% indicates the revenue growth translated into high profit growth.

By contrast, loans and deposits grew more moderately (CAGR 4.3% and 3.5%, respectively). This suggests revenue growth has been driven more by improved margins from the changing rate environment than by balance-sheet expansion.

Ordinary Income trends: each bank's growth trajectory

Comparing each bank's Ordinary Income shows clear differences in growth rates and scale.

5-year Ordinary Income trend

Bank	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	CAGR	FY2025 YoY
Mizuho (Mizuho Financial Group)	¥536.3 billion	¥559.8 billion	¥789.6 billion	¥914.0 billion	¥1.17 trillion	21.5%	+27.8%
Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG)	¥711.0 billion	¥1.04 trillion	¥1.16 trillion	¥1.47 trillion	¥1.72 trillion

MUFG is the largest by scale, with Ordinary Income of ¥2.67 trillion in FY2025 and the highest 5-year CAGR at 26.2%. Note MUFG experienced a temporary dip in FY2023 (▲33.6% vs FY2022) before a sharp recovery.

SMFG shows stable growth with a 24.7% CAGR and year-on-year increases every year since FY2022. Mizuho’s 21.5% CAGR is the lowest of the three, but FY2025 YoY growth of +27.8% is the strongest, reflecting recent acceleration after a slower FY2021–FY2022 period.

Revenue structure: weighting of Net Interest Income and fees

We compare each bank’s revenue composition by four categories: Net Interest Income, Net Fees & Commissions Income, Trading Income, and Trust Fees (FY2025, amounts shown are converted from the original unit).

Item	Mizuho	SMFG	MUFG
Net Interest Income	¥1.05 trillion	¥2.34 trillion	¥2.88 trillion
Net Interest Income Ratio	11.6%	23.0%	21.1%
Net Fees & Commissions Income	¥906.7 billion	¥1.56 trillion	¥1.95 trillion
Fees Ratio	12.4%	18.4%	17.3%
Trading Income

MUFG leads in absolute Net Interest Income at ¥2.88 trillion, but as a share of Ordinary Revenue its Net Interest Income Ratio (21.1%) is slightly below SMFG’s 23.0%. SMFG exhibits the best balance between Net Interest Income and fee income (Net Fees & Commissions), with both engines contributing strongly.

Mizuho’s Net Interest Income Ratio (11.6%) and fee ratio (12.4%) are lower than peers, while its Trading Income is large (¥1.05 trillion), comprising 11.6% of Ordinary Revenue — indicating above-average dependence on market operations.

MUFG’s Trust Fees of ¥144.3 billion reflect the scale of its trust banking business; Mizuho also has material trust revenue (¥62.2 billion), while SMFG’s trust fees are smaller (¥9.7 billion).

Breaking Net Interest Income down into Interest on Loans, Interest on Deposits, and Securities Interest & Dividends shows the impact of rising rates.

Bank / Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Change (23→25)
Mizuho
Interest on Loans	¥1.75 trillion	¥2.79 trillion	¥2.74 trillion	+¥988.4 billion
Interest on Deposits	¥840.0 billion	¥1.74 trillion	¥1.69 trillion	+¥850.3 billion
Securities Interest & Dividends

Interest on Loans increased substantially across all banks, but Interest on Deposits also rose in tandem, limiting Net Interest Income expansion. SMFG expanded Net Interest Income by ¥620.5 billion (+36.1%) over two years, indicating effective margin management.

Mizuho’s loan interest rose by ¥988.4 billion while deposit interest rose by ¥850.3 billion, so the net increase in Net Interest Income was only ¥84.7 billion (+8.8%). MUFG’s Net Interest Income was effectively flat over two years (a decrease of ¥49.8 billion), partly due to a drop in FY2024 and the relative movements of loan and deposit yields.

Securities Interest & Dividends increased at all banks; SMFG’s +¥498.6 billion (+114.0%) is most notable, suggesting more active portfolio management.

Efficiency metric: Overhead Ratio (OHR) improvements

The Overhead Ratio (OHR) equals General & Administrative Expenses divided by Ordinary Revenue. Lower is better.

OHR trends

Bank	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Improvement (21→25)
Mizuho	44.0%	35.1%	25.0%	19.0%	20.4%	▲23.6pt
SMFG	44.8%	44.3%	31.7%	24.1%	23.6%	▲21.2pt
MUFG

All three banks dramatically improved OHR, falling from the mid-40% range in FY2021 to the low-20% range by FY2025. This is largely driven by the expansion of Ordinary Revenue (denominator) due to rising interest income.

Mizuho shows the largest improvement in basis points (▲23.6 pp) but OHR ticked up +1.4 pp in FY2025 as General & Administrative Expenses rose (from ¥16.4 billion to ¥18.4 billion, +11.8%).

MUFG has the lowest OHR in FY2025 at 23.2%, reflecting scale economies: Ordinary Revenue of ¥13.63 trillion vs. General & Administrative Expenses of ¥3.23 trillion.

SMFG shows steady improvement and an encouraging trend since FY2024.

OHR is an important efficiency indicator, but during an interest-rate upcycle the denominator (Ordinary Revenue) can expand rapidly, making OHR improvements appear better than the underlying expense management. It is important to monitor absolute General & Administrative Expenses as well.

Balance-sheet analysis: loans, deposits and securities

Key balance-sheet items as of FY2025 (converted amounts):

Item	Mizuho	SMFG	MUFG
Total Assets	¥283.32 trillion	¥306.28 trillion	¥413.11 trillion
Loans	¥94.11 trillion	¥111.14 trillion	¥121.44 trillion
Deposits	¥158.75 trillion	¥171.50 trillion	¥228.51 trillion
Securities	¥34.31 trillion	¥40.76 trillion	¥86.13 trillion
Cash & Due from Banks

MUFG has by far the largest scale: total assets of ¥413.11 trillion, loans ¥121.44 trillion, deposits ¥228.51 trillion, and securities ¥86.13 trillion.

SMFG has the highest Loan-to-Deposit Ratio at 64.8%, indicating efficient deployment of deposits into loans. MUFG’s Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (53.1%) is the lowest and it holds large cash balances (¥109.10 trillion) and securities (¥86.13 trillion), implying a liquidity- and investment-focused balance-sheet stance.

Mizuho’s Loan-to-Deposit Ratio is 59.3% (mid-range), and its securities balance is the smallest among the three (¥34.31 trillion), down ¥3.9 trillion (▲10.3% YoY), suggesting ongoing portfolio repositioning.

Unrealized Gains on Securities are largest at SMFG (¥1.93 trillion), followed by MUFG (¥1.33 trillion) and Mizuho (¥867.6 billion). Despite rate-rise risk to bond valuations, all three banks remained in positive territory on securities valuations as of FY2025.

Allowance for Loan Losses is largest in absolute terms at MUFG (¥1.21 trillion) but, as a percentage of loans, MUFG’s coverage ratio is lowest among the three (roughly 1.0%), with Mizuho and SMFG both around 0.8%.

5-year growth rates for loans and deposits

Bank	Loans CAGR	Deposits CAGR
Mizuho	3.0%	4.5%
SMFG	6.9%	4.8%
MUFG	3.2%	1.9%

SMFG has aggressively grown loans (CAGR 6.9%). MUFG and Mizuho show more moderate loan growth in the 3% range. Deposit growth has been strongest at Mizuho and SMFG (mid-4% range), while MUFG’s deposit growth is more subdued (1.9%).

Cash flows and shareholder returns

Cash flow patterns reveal capital allocation strategies across the banks.

Cash flows (FY2023 → FY2025)

Bank / Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Mizuho
Operating CF	¥8.87 trillion	¥1.88 trillion	-¥3.82 trillion
Investing CF	¥6.61 trillion	¥1.98 trillion	¥3.79 trillion
Financing CF	-¥611.1 billion	-¥230.9 billion	-¥299.0 billion

For banks, Operating and Investing CFs are heavily affected by securities transactions and changes in loans/deposits. Mizuho recorded a negative Operating CF of -¥3.82 trillion in FY2025—likely driven by loan increases and deposit outflows—while positive Investing CF of ¥3.79 trillion suggests securities sales or maturities offsetting operating outflows.

Shareholder returns (Buybacks)

Bank / Item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	3-year total
Mizuho
Share Repurchases / Buybacks	¥2.3 billion	¥3.3 billion	¥102.9 billion	¥108.5 billion
SMFG
Share Repurchases / Buybacks

MUFG leads in buybacks with a three-year total of about ¥1.27 trillion, followed by SMFG (¥601.8 billion) and Mizuho (¥108.5 billion). Mizuho implemented a large-scale buyback in FY2025 (¥102.9 billion), signaling stronger shareholder-return intent. MUFG has maintained a stable annual buyback program around ¥400 billion. SMFG has been increasing its buyback amounts year by year.

Dividend cash payouts are not individually detailed in the provided dataset; this article therefore focuses on share repurchases. The next section analyzes per-share dividends where available.

We compare EPS and dividend trends. Note SMFG executed a stock split (~1:3) in FY2025, so pre- and post-split per-share numbers are not directly comparable without adjustment.

EPS, dividends, and payout ratio

Bank / Metric	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Notes
Mizuho
EPS (JPY)	¥219.20	¥267.88	¥350.20	—
Dividend per share (JPY)	¥85.00	¥105.00	¥140.00	—
Payout ratio	38.8%

Payout ratio = Dividend per share ÷ EPS × 100

Mizuho’s EPS rose steadily (¥219 → ¥268 → ¥350), and dividends were increased to ¥140 in FY2025 with a stable payout ratio around 38–40%.

Adjusted for the stock split, SMFG’s EPS and dividend both rose materially; the payout ratio rose to 44.8% in FY2025 (on the adjusted basis), indicating a stronger return posture.

MUFG has steadily increased EPS (¥90.73 → ¥124.65 → ¥160.02) and dividends (¥32 → ¥41 → ¥64), with the payout ratio rising to 40.0%.

Approximate ROE comparison

Bank	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Mizuho	6.0%	6.6%	8.4%
SMFG	6.3%	6.5%	7.9%
MUFG	6.1%	7.2%	8.6%

Approx. ROE = Net Income ÷ Shareholders' Equity

ROE improved at all three banks, with MUFG highest at 8.6% in FY2025, Mizuho at 8.4%, and SMFG at 7.9% — all around the high-single-digit range by FY2025.

Guidance and progress against FY2026 targets

Only Mizuho and SMFG disclosed FY2026 full-year forecasts; we also check FY2026 Q3 cumulative actuals.

Full-year forecasts and Q3 cumulative results (amounts shown were converted)

Bank	FY2025 actual	FY2026 forecast	FY2026 Q3 cumulative	Year-on-year (Q3)
Mizuho
Net Income	¥885.4 billion	¥940.0 billion	¥1.02 trillion	+115.2%
SMFG
Net Income

Mizuho’s FY2026 forecast implies Net Income of ¥940.0 billion (+6.2% vs FY2025). The FY2026 Q3 cumulative Net Income of ¥1.02 trillion already exceeds the full-year forecast, suggesting potential upward revision, though seasonal and one-off items in Q4 could change the outcome.

SMFG forecasts ¥1.30 trillion Net Income for FY2026 (FY2025 +10.4%), but Q3 cumulative already reached ¥1.39 trillion, exceeding the full-year guidance.

MUFG has not disclosed FY2026 guidance; its Q3 cumulative Net Income of ¥1.81 trillion is slightly below FY2025 full-year Net Income (¥1.86 trillion), meaning full-year results hinge on Q4 performance.

FY2026 Q3 Ordinary Income (cumulative)

Bank	Q3 cumulative	Year-on-year
Mizuho	¥1.25 trillion	+107.4%
SMFG	¥1.90 trillion	+110.5%
MUFG	¥2.51 trillion	+94.0%

At the Ordinary Income level, Mizuho and SMFG are maintaining double-digit YoY growth in Q3 cumulative results, while MUFG shows a decline versus the prior period.

Even when cumulative quarterly results exceed full-year guidance, seasonal factors or one-off items in Q4 may affect the final FY2026 outcome; exceeding Q3 guidance is not a definitive signal of upward revision.

Qualitative points to watch going forward

Below are qualitative considerations not directly derivable from XBRL data.

Central bank policy and margins

The Bank of Japan’s policy direction will materially affect bank margins. The sharp increase in Interest Income since FY2023 reflects higher market rates, but rising deposit costs have offset some margin gains. Future movements in short- and long-term rates will differentially impact each bank’s Net Interest Income.

Growth prospects for fee businesses

As Net Interest Income can be volatile with rate cycles, growing fee income sustainably is increasingly important. SMFG’s Net Fees & Commissions at ¥1.56 trillion shows a healthy balance with interest income, while Mizuho’s fee base (¥906.7 billion) is relatively smaller. Expanding asset-management and advisory services can diversify revenue streams.

Digitalization and expense efficiency

Although OHR improved dramatically, much of that improvement reflects revenue expansion. Mizuho’s absolute General & Administrative Expenses increased +11.8%, likely reflecting digital investments and systems upgrades. Further branch rationalization and channel migration could produce real expense reductions.

Overseas expansion

Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment balances turned markedly positive for all three banks (MUFG ¥3.2 trillion, SMFG ¥1.4 trillion, Mizuho ¥0.4 trillion), reflecting overseas growth and a weaker yen. Global loan portfolios and earnings from overseas subsidiaries may become increasingly important growth drivers.

Capital ratios and regulatory response

FY2025 reported Capital Adequacy Ratios were: Mizuho 3.6%, SMFG 4.8%, MUFG 5.0% (these are the reported figures in the source). All are within internationally required levels for global systemically important banks, but evolving Basel standards (finalization of Basel III / potential Basel IV changes) will require continued focus on capital efficiency. CET1 Ratio disclosures will be important to monitor.

Summary: financial characteristics of the three mega-banks

まとめ

- **MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ)**: Clear advantage in scale. Ordinary Income CAGR 26.2% and ROE 8.6% indicate strong capital efficiency. Conservative Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (53.1%) and liquidity-focused B/S. Stable share buybacks around ¥400 billion per year. - **SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui)**: Notable stability of growth. Aggressive loan growth (Loans CAGR 6.9%) and balanced earnings from Net Interest Income and fee income. High Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (64.8%), and increasing share repurchases. - **Mizuho (Mizuho Financial Group)**: High dependence on Trading Income, reflecting strong markets capability. Recent profit acceleration is notable (FY2025 YoY +27.8%). Stepped up buybacks in FY2025 signal a stronger shareholder-return stance.

All three banks have grown earnings markedly in the rate-rise environment, but differences in revenue mix and efficiency remain. MUFG leverages scale for stable growth; SMFG pursues balanced revenue diversification and active loan expansion; Mizuho differentiates with market operations. For FY2026, Mizuho and SMFG are progressing strongly while MUFG’s Q3 results suggest a more mixed outlook pending Q4.

Key factors to watch are central bank policy, overseas expansion, fee-business growth, and digitalization-driven efficiency gains. Continued XBRL-based quantitative analysis will help refine understanding of each bank’s evolving financial profile.

This article is for informational purposes only, based on publicly available financial data (TDnet XBRL filings). It is intended as a financial analysis resource and does not constitute investment advice.