| 指標 | 当期 | 前年同期 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 売上高 | ¥56257.6B | ¥61653.3B | -8.8% |
| 営業利益 | - | - | - |
| 経常利益 | ¥2719.5B | ¥1702.9B | +59.7% |
| 純利益 | ¥1702.0B | ¥1240.9B | +37.2% |
| ROE | 4.1% | 3.8% | - |
For the fiscal year ended March 2026, Revenue (substitute: Ordinary Revenue for insurance business) was ¥56,257.6B (YoY -¥5,395.7B, -8.8%), Operating Income not applicable (operating profit concept not adopted for insurance business), Ordinary Income ¥2,719.5B (YoY +¥1,016.6B, +59.7%), Net Income ¥1,702.0B (YoY +¥461.1B, +37.2%). Despite revenue decline, substantial improvement in investment income led to significant profit growth. Trust account income doubled to ¥3,977.0B (prior year ¥1,991.5B), securities sale gains of ¥526.3B were recorded (prior year ¥1,106.4B), and investment management income expanded to ¥13,108.0B (prior year ¥11,956.2B, +9.6%). Derivative losses were compressed to ¥439.7B (prior year ¥683.3B) while interest expenses increased to ¥311.0B (prior year ¥136.4B). Comprehensive income turned sharply positive to ¥1,351.7B (prior year -¥1,164.3B), and Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income bolstered Net Assets to ¥4兆1,536.3B (YoY +¥9,122.0B, +28.1%). Operating Cash Flow was -¥18,849.3B, Investing Cash Flow was +¥17,860.7B, Financing Cash Flow was -¥1,242.4B (including share buybacks -¥800.0B), resulting in Free Cash Flow of -¥988.6B and net cash outflow.
[Revenue] Ordinary Revenue (substitute for Net Sales in insurance business) was ¥56,257.6B, a YoY decline of -8.8%. Investment management income expanded to ¥13,108.0B (+9.6%), with trust account income doubling to ¥3,977.0B (prior year ¥1,991.5B, +99.6%) and securities sale gains of ¥526.3B recorded (prior year ¥1,106.4B), continuing the improvement in investment returns. Conversely, underwriting revenue was ¥43,149.1B, down from ¥47,169.2B ( -8.5%). A decrease in policy reserves (¥48,102.4B, prior year ¥51,165.7B, -4.1%) indicates valuation decreases in reserve liabilities amid rising rates and dynamics in held contracts, which is the primary cause of top-line contraction. On the investment side, improved interest-rate environment enhanced valuation and realized gains on trust accounts and securities, and derivative losses were reduced to ¥439.7B (prior year ¥683.3B).
[Profitability] Ordinary Income was ¥2,719.5B (+59.7%), Net Income was ¥1,702.0B (+37.2%). Operating margin was 4.8% (prior year 2.8%, +2.0pp), Net Margin was 3.0% (prior year 2.0%, +1.0pp). The primary driver of profit growth was a large increase in investment income (trust income +¥1,985.5B, total investment management income +¥1,151.8B), while interest expense rose to ¥311.0B (prior year ¥136.4B, +¥174.6B), increasing interest burden. Total investment expenses increased to ¥4,448.7B (prior year ¥2,790.8B, +59.4%), but revenue-side growth outpaced expense growth. Operating expenses (business expenses) were compressed to ¥53,538.1B (prior year ¥59,950.4B, -10.7%), contributing via cost control. Extraordinary items comprised special gains ¥1,107.1B and special losses ¥28.8B, netting ¥1,078.3B positive. Corporate tax was ¥674.0B (effective tax rate 28.5%). Comprehensive income turned to a large profit of ¥1,351.7B, and Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (securities valuation difference ¥24,485.2B, prior year ¥15,516.7B, +¥8,968.5B) lifted Net Assets. In conclusion: revenue fell but profits rose substantially, driven by improved investment income.
[Profitability] Operating margin 4.8% (prior year 2.8%, +2.0pp), Net margin 3.0% (prior year 2.0%, +1.0pp), ROE 4.1% (prior year 3.7%, +0.4pp). DuPont decomposition: Net margin 3.0% × Total Asset Turnover 0.096 × Financial Leverage 14.07x = ROE 4.1%. Improvement in Net margin was the largest contributor, driven by expansion in trust account income and investment management income. Total Asset Turnover declined from 0.103 to 0.096 due to revenue contraction and differing pace of asset reduction, and Financial Leverage declined from 18.38x to 14.07x with increase in Net Assets, limiting capital efficiency gains. [Cash Quality] Operating Cash Flow -¥18,849.3B remained negative; Operating CF / Net Income -11.17x, OCF/EBITDA -6.07x (EBITDA calculated as Ordinary Income ¥2,719.5B + Depreciation ¥384.7B = ¥3,104.2B), indicating very weak cash conversion. Operating CF subtotal (before working capital changes) was -¥26,422.6B, largely impacted by ALM-driven asset-liability rebalancing in insurance operations (short-term investment securities purchases -¥14,140.4B, loan recoveries +¥9,012.7B, etc.). Free Cash Flow was -¥988.6B, so dividends and buybacks were not covered by self-generated cash. [Investment Efficiency] Total Assets ¥58,4421.6B (YoY -1.1%), Total Asset Turnover 0.096x (prior year 0.103). Tangible fixed assets ¥1,358.1B, Intangible fixed assets ¥1,193.9B; capital expenditures limited at -¥26.4B, below depreciation ¥384.7B, indicating asset aging. [Solvency] Equity Ratio 7.1% (prior year 5.4%, +1.7pp), Debt-to-Equity (D/E) 13.07x (prior year 17.38x). Policy reserves ¥48,102.4B are the principal liabilities, and interest-bearing debt including corporate bonds ¥5,000.0B is limited. Net assets ¥4兆1,536.3B (+28.1%) increased primarily due to accumulation of valuation differences of ¥24,001.6B (prior year ¥15,337.9B, +¥8,663.7B); retained earnings increased to ¥8,943.3B (prior year ¥8,035.0B, +¥908.3B). Cash and deposits ¥17,529.8B, Securities ¥44,931.3B, Trust accounts ¥8兆398.4B provide high liquidity, but risks remain for valuation losses and increased hedge collateral demand during rate rises or market stress. Retirement benefit liabilities compressed to ¥986.6B (prior year ¥1,079.3B).
Operating CF was -¥18,849.3B (prior year -¥16,278.4B, -15.8% deterioration), remaining substantially negative. Operating CF subtotal (before working capital changes) was -¥26,422.6B (prior year -¥24,270.3B); working capital changes including short-term investment securities purchases -¥14,140.4B (prior year -¥25,934.4B) and loan recoveries +¥9,012.7B (prior year +¥12,365.0B) resulted in net cash outflow of -329,952百万円, indicating large impact from asset-liability rebalancing in insurance operations. Investing CF was +¥17,860.7B (prior year +¥23,864.6B), mainly proceeds from sales/maturities of investment securities including short-term investment securities sales +¥14,140.4B; tangible capex was -¥26.4B and intangible asset acquisitions -¥411.3B, showing limited physical investment. Financing CF was -¥1,242.4B (prior year +¥601.4B), driven by share buybacks -¥800.0B and dividends -¥429.6B (Payout Ratio 81.9%). Free Cash Flow (Operating CF + Investing CF) was -¥988.6B, and total shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks approximately ¥1,230B) were not covered by self-generated cash; cash and deposits decreased by ¥2,231.0B (opening ¥19,760.8B → closing ¥17,529.8B). ALM adjustments amid rising rates caused large cash flow volatility, widening the mismatch between cash generation and shareholder returns.
Ordinary Income ¥2,719.5B plus net extraordinary items ¥1,078.3B (special gains ¥1,107.1B, special losses ¥28.8B) resulted in Profit Before Tax ¥2,361.9B. The details of special gains are undisclosed but may include proceeds or valuation gains related to securities. Special losses include impairment losses of ¥25.6B. At the ordinary level, investment management income ¥13,108.0B was driven chiefly by trust account income ¥3,977.0B (prior year ¥1,991.5B, +99.6%) and securities sale gains ¥526.3B, making results highly dependent on interest-rate and market conditions. Equity-method investment income ¥21.0B was limited. On the expense side, investment expenses ¥4,448.7B included securities sale losses ¥3,647.2B (prior year ¥1,934.7B) and derivative losses ¥439.7B (prior year ¥683.3B), indicating realized and valuation losses also occurred. The large divergence between Operating CF subtotal -¥26,422.6B and Net Income ¥1,702.0B shows earnings are largely accrual-based with weak cash backing. Comprehensive Income ¥1,351.7B exceeded Net Income ¥1,702.0B primarily due to Other Comprehensive Income +¥8,649.7B from valuation increases, driven by improved rate and market environments. Variability in valuation differences will affect realized gains/losses and volatility in subsequent periods, so earnings sustainability depends on market conditions.
For FY2027 (year ending March 2027) the company forecasts Ordinary Revenue ¥51,300.0B (prior year ¥56,257.6B, continuing -8.8% revenue outlook), Ordinary Income ¥2,500.0B (prior year ¥2,719.5B, -8.1% profit decline expected), Net Income ¥1,410.0B (prior year ¥1,702.0B, -17.2%), and EPS forecast ¥130.12 (prior year ¥152.55). As of the first half, revenue progress was 109.5% and Ordinary Income progress 108.8% of the full-year forecast, already exceeding the full-year guidance, but the company maintained conservative guidance factoring in second-half investment income reversals (normalization of trust account income and sale gains), higher hedge costs, and rate volatility. Dividend forecast is ¥25 annual (interim ¥62 + year-end ¥62, totaling ¥124 pre-split equivalent), and a 1-for-3 stock split was implemented on April 1, 2026. If the split-adjusted level is maintained, the effective annual dividend would be ¥75, indicating a reduction from the interim levels and reflecting cautious capital allocation due to profit and cash uncertainty.
Annual dividend on actual basis was ¥124 per share (interim ¥62 + year-end ¥62), Payout Ratio 81.9% (total dividend ≈ ¥1,230B ÷ Net Income ¥1,702.0B). The company conducted ¥800.0B of share buybacks during the year, increasing treasury stock reduction to -¥459.0B (prior year -¥9.0B). Total shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks) were approximately ¥2,030B, exceeding Net Income ¥1,702.0B (Total Return Ratio ≈ 119%). With Free Cash Flow -¥988.6B, total returns of ≈ ¥2,030B represent a coverage of -2.05x, meaning returns were not funded by self-generated cash and were implemented by drawing down cash and selling assets. For FY2027, post 1-for-3 split, dividend forecast ¥25 (equivalent to ¥75 annual) represents a reduction from actual ¥124, reflecting an adjustment of payout in light of potential reversals in investment income and cash flow uncertainty. Dividend sustainability will depend on improvement in core cash generation and stabilization of investment returns.
Interest-rate and market volatility risk: Of investment management income ¥13,108.0B, trust account income ¥3,977.0B and securities sale gains ¥526.3B are highly market-dependent. Rapid rate moves or spread widening could enlarge valuation and realized losses and increase hedge costs (interest expenses ¥311.0B, YoY +128.0%). Although derivative losses were compressed to ¥439.7B (prior year ¥683.3B), deterioration in ALM hedge effectiveness may amplify impacts on earnings and capital.
Cash flow instability risk: Operating CF -¥18,849.3B and Operating CF / Net Income -11.17x indicate extremely weak cash backing of profits; Operating CF subtotal -¥26,422.6B largely reflects ALM-driven asset-liability rebalancing. With Free Cash Flow -¥988.6B versus total returns ≈ ¥2,030B, sustainability concerns arise and dependency on liquidity sourcing in adverse markets increases.
Insurance liabilities and policy dynamics risk: Decrease in policy reserves to ¥48,102.4B (YoY -4.1%) suggests valuation impacts from rising rates and contraction in held contracts. Under continued Ordinary Revenue decline of -8.8%, higher lapse rates or slower new policy acquisition could reduce stock income, reversing capital efficiency and margin improvements. At Equity Ratio 7.1% and D/E 13.07x, high leverage implies deteriorating fit between insurance liabilities and ALM could directly impact capital adequacy.
収益性・リターン
| 指標 | 自社 | 中央値 (IQR) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 純利益率 | 3.0% | 4.3% (0.6%–11.3%) | -1.3pt |
Net margin is 3.0%, 1.3pp below the industry median 4.3%, indicating the company sits slightly below median within the industry despite improved investment returns.
成長性・資本効率
| 指標 | 自社 | 中央値 (IQR) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 売上高成長率（前年比） | -8.8% | 2.1% (-4.5%–6.9%) | -10.9pt |
Revenue growth rate was -8.8%, 10.9pp below industry median +2.1%, highlighting a pronounced revenue contraction within the industry due to reduced underwriting revenue.
※Source: Company compilation
Verification of investment-income-led profit structure and its sustainability: Large profit increases (Ordinary Income +59.7%, Net Income +37.2%) were driven by trust account income +99.6% and accumulation of securities sale gains, benefiting from improved rate environment. However, Operating CF -¥18,849.3B and Operating CF / Net Income -11.17x indicate extremely weak cash conversion and high market-dependency of earnings. The company’s plan anticipates Ordinary Income -8.1% YoY, factoring in investment income normalization and higher hedge costs. Key watch items are stabilization of trust income and sale gains, and improvement in core cash generation.
High total shareholder returns and sustainability of capital allocation: Payout Ratio 81.9% and Total Return Ratio ≈119% resulted in returns exceeding Net Income, including ¥800B buybacks. With Free Cash Flow -¥988.6B, returns were not covered by self-generated cash, and accumulation of valuation differences (+¥8,663.7B) supported capital capacity. FY2027 dividend forecast post-split points to an effective reduction, indicating ongoing recalibration between cash flow and return levels. Focus will be on ensuring dividend sustainability via core CF improvements and confirming capital-resilience under adverse markets.
Importance of ALM management and volatility control: Policy reserves -4.1%, changes in securities and trust account composition, and interest expense +128.0% indicate continued asset-liability rebalancing. Valuation differences ¥24,001.6B account for 57.8% of Net Assets, making capital and comprehensive income highly sensitive to rate and market movements. Although derivative losses were reduced, ¥439.7B remains recorded; ALM hedge effectiveness and cost control are key to stabilizing earnings. Under continued revenue decline, monitoring retention of existing contracts, acquisition of new contracts, and lapse rates will be critical metrics.
This report is an earnings analysis document automatically generated by AI analyzing XBRL financial statement data. It does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any particular security. Industry benchmarks are reference information compiled by our firm based on public financial statements. Investment decisions are your responsibility; please consult professionals as needed before making any investment decisions.
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