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59032026 Q2 / First HalfStandardJGAAP

SHINPO (5903) FY2026 Q2 Earnings Report

For FY2026 Q2, revenue came to ¥3.5B (-12.9% year on year) and operating income ¥384.0M (-38.3%). The segment drivers and cash flow follow.

SHINPO CO.,LTD.

Construction & Materials/Metal Products


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MetricCurrent PeriodSame Period Previous YearYoY
Revenue¥35.2B¥40.4B−12.9%
Operating Income¥3.8B¥6.2B−38.3%
Ordinary Income¥3.9B¥6.3B−38.1%
Net Income¥2.5B¥3.8B−33.5%
ROE3.6%5.5%-

Executive Summary

Cumulative Q2 FY2026 results were characterized by declines in both revenue and earnings, rather than growth in both, with the most important point being that earnings contracted more sharply than revenue. Revenue was ¥35.2B (down -12.9% YoY), Operating Income was ¥3.8B (down -38.3%), Ordinary Income was ¥3.9B (down -38.1%), and Net Income was ¥2.5B (down -33.5%). The contraction in earnings exceeding the decline in revenue indicates that the fixed-cost burden of SG&A expenses could not absorb the decline in operating capacity.

Factors Affecting Performance

【Revenue】Revenue was ¥35.2B, down 12.9% YoY. The primary causes are believed to be deterioration in demand or sales volume and project mix. In the second half, securing approximately ¥40.3B in revenue (the remaining amount based on a progress rate of 46.6%) will be necessary to achieve the full-year forecast.

【Profit and Loss】Gross profit was ¥12.1B (gross margin of 34.4%), and after deducting SG&A expenses of ¥8.3B (SG&A ratio of 23.5%), Operating Income was ¥3.8B (Operating Income margin of 10.9%). Operating Income declined 38.3%, substantially more than the 12.9% decline in revenue, reflecting a deterioration in operating leverage due to the fixed-cost burden. Ordinary Income was ¥3.9B (-38.1%), approximately in line with Operating Income, while Net Income was ¥2.5B (-33.5%), indicating that the impact of extraordinary items and the tax burden was limited. In conclusion, the company experienced declines in both revenue and earnings.

Key Financial Indicators

【Profitability】The Operating Income margin was 10.9% and the Net Income margin was 7.2%, both indicating a certain level of profitability; however, ROE remained at 3.6%. Under DuPont analysis, ROE of 3.6% is composed of a Net Income margin of 7.2% × total asset turnover of 0.404x × financial leverage of 1.25x. ROE is constrained by the low total asset turnover and reduced earnings level, rather than by financial leverage.【Cash Flow Quality】Operating Cash Flow (OCF) was ¥4.8B, or 1.90x Net Income of ¥2.5B, securing cash generation in excess of earnings. The accrual ratio was also low at negative 2.6%, indicating good earnings quality.【Investment Efficiency】Capital expenditures of ¥4.4B reached 5.06x depreciation and amortization expense of ¥0.9B, indicating a phase of active renewal and expansion of production facilities. Free cash flow was ¥2.4B, remaining positive even after absorbing these investments through OCF.【Financial Soundness】With an Equity Ratio of 80.0%, a current ratio of 322.5%, interest-bearing debt of ¥3.95B, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25x, the financial foundation is conservative and robust.

Cash Flow Analysis

OCF was ¥4.8B, down 10.8% YoY, but remained above Net Income of ¥2.5B, indicating that the cash backing for earnings remained strong. Investing Cash Flow was negative ¥2.4B, primarily reflecting capital expenditures of ¥4.4B, with active investment continuing at a level significantly exceeding depreciation and amortization expense of ¥0.9B. Financing Cash Flow was negative ¥2.7B, reflecting cash outflows from dividend payments and debt repayments. As a result, Free Cash Flow (OCF + Investing Cash Flow) was positive at ¥2.4B. The ability to cover large-scale investments with internally generated funds while proceeding with such investments indicates financial stability. Meanwhile, cash and cash equivalents decreased by ¥0.33B during the period, and the balance between investment, shareholder returns, and cash generation may change depending on future OCF trends.

Earnings Quality

Extraordinary items were extremely small, and recurring operating business profit and loss formed the core of performance, with limited upward or downward effects on earnings from temporary factors. Non-operating income was ¥0.1B and non-operating expenses were ¥0.0B, both extremely small, leaving Ordinary Income of ¥3.9B approximately in line with Operating Income of ¥3.8B. OCF of ¥4.8B was 1.90x Net Income of ¥2.5B, and accruals—the difference between accounting profit and cash—were negative, indicating that earnings were recognized with accompanying cash generation and demonstrating high earnings quality. Comprehensive income was ¥2.8B, and the difference from Net Income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥2.5B was attributable to valuation differences on securities of ¥0.3B and other items; there was no significant divergence.

Earnings Forecast and Guidance

The full-year forecast is Revenue of ¥75.5B (+2.5% YoY), Operating Income of ¥9.8B (+0.4%), and Ordinary Income of ¥9.9B (+0.1%). Progress against cumulative Q2 results was 46.6% for Revenue, 39.2% for Operating Income, 39.4% for Ordinary Income, and 38.2% for Net Income. Revenue progress was close to the standard 50%, but profit items were 10~12 points lower, indicating a plan weighted toward the second half. To achieve the full-year targets, the second-half Operating Income margin must be raised from the first-half actual result of 10.9% to approximately 14.8%. Control of SG&A expenses and a recovery in operating capacity during the second half will be key to achieving the targets.

Shareholder Returns

The Q2 dividend was ¥0, and the full-year forecast dividend is ¥42 per share, reflecting a structure centered on the year-end dividend. Based on forecast EPS of ¥119.19, the forecast Payout Ratio is 35.2%, a relatively conservative level when dividends alone are considered. Against cumulative Q2 Free Cash Flow of ¥2.4B, dividends paid were ¥2.3B. On a cumulative basis, FCF slightly exceeded dividends, indicating that dividend capacity had been secured as of the current quarter.

Risk Factors

  1. Risk of prolonged revenue decline: Revenue declined 12.9% YoY. If declining demand or deterioration in project mix continues, recovery from the 46.6% progress rate for second-half Revenue may be delayed.

  2. Risk of deterioration in operating leverage: Operating Income declined 38.3%, substantially more than the decline in Revenue. The fixed-cost burden reflected in the SG&A ratio of 23.5% could amplify and worsen the deterioration in profitability when operating capacity declines.

  3. Risk of recovering capital expenditures: Capital expenditures of ¥4.4B reached 5.06x depreciation and amortization expense of ¥0.9B. If the investment recovery does not proceed as planned, ROE and ROIC may decline further.

Industry Benchmark (For Reference; Compiled by the Company)

Industry Benchmark (manufacturing)

Profitability and Returns

MetricCompanyMedian (IQR)Delta
Operating Income margin10.9%9.7% (5.4%–23.7%)+1.2pt
Net Income margin7.2%5.4% (1.3%–20.1%)+1.8pt

Both the Operating Income margin and Net Income margin exceed the industry median, but each remains at a level close to the lower end of the IQR.

Growth and Capital Efficiency

MetricCompanyMedian (IQR)Delta
Revenue growth rate (YoY)−12.9%10.6% (-3.4%–25.4%)−23.5pt

The Revenue growth rate is substantially below the industry median and is also below the lower bound of the IQR, indicating a low-growth phase.

※Source: Compiled by the Company

Key Takeaways from the Earnings Results

  1. Financial soundness and cash flow quality are strong. In addition to a current ratio of 322.5% and an Equity Ratio of 80.0%, OCF was 1.90x Net Income, indicating a high level of short-term financial stability.

  2. On the other hand, Operating Income contracted sharply by 38.3% against a 12.9% decline in Revenue. The deterioration in operating leverage due to the fixed-cost burden is the primary performance-related point to monitor.

  3. To achieve the full-year forecast, the second-half Operating Income margin must be raised from 10.9% in the first half to approximately 14.8%. How increased capital expenditures—5.06x depreciation and amortization—will translate into future revenue and earnings is a key structural point to monitor.


This report is an earnings analysis document automatically generated by AI based on XBRL earnings release data. It does not recommend investment in any specific security. The industry benchmarks are reference information compiled by the Company based on publicly available earnings data. Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and responsibility, after consulting with a professional as necessary.

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AI Financial Analysis

Executive Summary

FY2026 Q2 performance was weak versus the prior-year period, with lower sales compounded by substantial operating-margin compression. Revenue declined 12.9% year on year to ¥3.52bn. Operating income fell 38.3% to ¥384m, materially underperforming the top-line decline. Ordinary income declined 38.1% to ¥389m. Net income decreased 33.5% to ¥253m, equivalent to EPS of ¥45.99. Gross profit declined 15.6% to ¥1.21bn. The gross margin contracted by approximately 100bp to 34.4% from 35.4% in the prior-year period. SG&A expenses increased 2.4% to ¥827m despite the revenue contraction. Consequently, the SG&A-to-sales ratio rose by about 350bp to 23.5%. The operating margin therefore compressed by approximately 450bp to 10.9% from 15.4%. The net margin declined by approximately 220bp to 7.2% from 9.4%. Cash generation was stronger than accounting earnings, with operating cash flow of ¥479m representing 1.90x net income. Operating cash flow also exceeded EBITDA of ¥471m, supporting the quality of reported earnings. The balance sheet remains highly conservative, with a 322.5% current ratio, ¥2.04bn of cash and deposits, and debt-to-equity of just 0.25x. Capital expenditure of ¥440m was elevated at 5.06x depreciation, indicating an active investment phase despite weaker earnings. Against full-year company guidance, Q2 progress is below the standard 50% run-rate for revenue and profits, raising the importance of a second-half recovery. The full-year forecast still anticipates 2.5% revenue growth and broadly flat operating income year on year, implying a meaningful improvement in the second half.

Profitability Analysis

Annualized DuPont ROE is 7.2%, comprising a 7.2% annualized net profit margin, 0.808x annualized asset turnover, and 1.25x financial leverage. The principal constraint on returns is profitability rather than leverage: the balance sheet is conservatively financed, so limited financial leverage appropriately contributes little to ROE. The annualized 7.2% ROE is below the 8% threshold generally associated with an adequate return profile. The sharpest year-on-year movement is in operating profitability, as the operating margin fell about 450bp to 10.9%. Gross-margin contraction of around 100bp explains part of this deterioration, while the larger driver was negative operating leverage. SG&A rose 2.4% while revenue fell 12.9%, lifting the SG&A ratio to 23.5% from 20.0%. This cost rigidity amplified the impact of the sales decline, causing operating income to fall roughly three times faster than revenue. The EBITDA margin was 13.4%, above the operating margin due to ¥87m of depreciation and amortization. The five-factor decomposition indicates a 65.3% tax burden and a 100.5% interest burden; minimal financing costs mean debt is not diluting returns. Interest expense was only ¥2m and interest coverage was 161.14x. Non-operating income of ¥10m was only 0.3% of revenue and was mainly dividends and rental-related income, leaving ordinary profit closely aligned with operating profit. The ¥4m extraordinary loss was immaterial relative to net income. Margin recovery depends on restoring revenue volume and improving absorption of the existing SG&A base; absent this, the current operating-margin decline is unlikely to be fully offset by financial management.

Growth Assessment

Revenue declined ¥490m year on year to ¥3.52bn, indicating weaker demand or shipment volume during the first half. Gross profit fell ¥220m, somewhat faster than sales, as the gross margin decreased to 34.4%. Operating income declined ¥238m, reflecting both lower gross profit and a ¥19m rise in SG&A expenses. Net income declined by a smaller ¥127m than operating income because non-operating items remained modest and the effective tax rate decreased to 34.4% from the prior period's higher implied rate. Manufacturing inventory composition shows raw materials of ¥384m, work in process of ¥53m, and finished goods of ¥68m. Raw-material inventory was broadly stable year on year, work in process declined, and finished goods increased, which warrants monitoring alongside the revenue contraction. Full-year guidance calls for revenue of ¥7.55bn, operating income of ¥980m, ordinary income of ¥988m, and net income attributable to owners of ¥662m. Q2 revenue progress is 46.6% of the full-year forecast, 3.4 percentage points below the standard 50% H1 pace. Operating-income progress is 39.2%, 10.8 percentage points below the standard pace. Ordinary-income progress is 39.4%, 10.6 percentage points below the standard pace. Net-income progress is 38.2%, 11.8 percentage points below the standard pace. The profit-progress shortfall is more pronounced than the revenue-progress shortfall, meaning the guidance requires both higher second-half sales and improved operating leverage. The forecast implies second-half revenue of ¥4.03bn and operating income of ¥596m, or a 14.8% implied second-half operating margin, compared with 10.9% in Q2 cumulative results. This implied margin rebound is achievable only if revenue recovers and fixed-cost absorption improves materially.

Financial Health

Financial health is strong. Current assets of ¥3.30bn exceeded current liabilities of ¥1.02bn, producing working capital of ¥2.27bn and a current ratio of 322.5%. The quick ratio was similarly robust at 315.9%, demonstrating that liquidity is supported primarily by cash and receivables rather than inventory. Cash and deposits were ¥2.04bn, equivalent to 23.5% of total assets. Interest-bearing debt was ¥395m, consisting mainly of ¥375m in long-term loans and only ¥20m in short-term loans. Cash was 102.20x short-term debt, and the short-term debt ratio was only 5.1%, indicating no meaningful near-term refinancing pressure. Debt-to-equity was 0.25x, debt-to-capital was 5.4%, and debt-to-EBITDA was 0.84x, all consistent with a conservative capital structure. The company also generated EBITDA interest coverage of 197.60x, leaving substantial debt-service capacity. Total liabilities represented 20.0% of total assets, while equity represented approximately 80.0%. Long-term loans declined ¥36m year on year, while total liabilities decreased ¥33m. Net defined benefit liabilities of ¥181m and directors' retirement benefit provisions of ¥61m are relevant long-term obligations but remain manageable relative to ¥6.97bn of equity. PPE accounted for 55.1% of assets, consistent with a capital-intensive manufacturing asset base. There is no balance-sheet evidence that leverage is driving earnings or creating a maturity mismatch.

Notable B/S Changes

Property, plant and equipment: +¥343m (+7.7%) year on year to ¥4.81bn - reflects an expanding operating asset base alongside elevated capital expenditure; return and utilization of these investments should be monitored. Land: +¥139m (+8.5%) year on year to ¥1.78bn - a meaningful component of the increase in fixed assets and capital deployed. Other PPE: +¥240m (+20.1%) year on year to ¥1.44bn - indicates additional investment in production or operating infrastructure. Cash and deposits: -¥233m (-10.2%) year on year to ¥2.04bn - reflects investment and financing cash deployment but remains substantial relative to debt and current liabilities. Investment securities: +¥40m (+8.9%) year on year to ¥486m - increases exposure to market-value movements within other comprehensive income. Long-term loans: -¥36m (-8.7%) year on year to ¥375m - continued repayment supports the already conservative leverage profile.

Cash Flow Quality

Earnings quality was strong during the first half. Operating cash flow was ¥479m, exceeding net income of ¥253m by ¥226m and resulting in an OCF-to-net-income ratio of 1.90x. This is comfortably above the 1.0x benchmark for high-quality earnings. Cash conversion, measured as OCF divided by EBITDA, was 1.02x, demonstrating that EBITDA converted into cash effectively. The accruals ratio was negative 2.6%, also consistent with conservative cash-backed earnings. Operating cash flow was supported by the non-cash depreciation charge of ¥87m, an increase in accrued taxes, and an increase in product-warranty provisions. Trade receivables decreased by ¥59m, providing an operating cash-flow benefit rather than indicating a buildup in customer balances. Trade payables increased modestly by ¥7m, while inventory-related cash flow was modestly positive. Reported free cash flow was ¥240m using the disclosed cash-flow definition. On a stricter operating-cash-flow-less-capex basis, free cash flow was ¥39m because capital expenditure was ¥440m. Capital expenditure was high at 12.5% of first-half revenue and 5.06x depreciation, substantially exceeding maintenance-level reinvestment. PPE increased ¥343m year on year to ¥4.81bn, with increases in land and other PPE supporting the conclusion that investment is being deployed into the operating asset base. This investment intensity creates execution risk, but it is currently funded from internal cash generation and a strong liquidity buffer rather than aggressive borrowing. Cash and deposits declined ¥233m year on year, while period-end cash and cash equivalents were ¥1.94bn, leaving ample financial flexibility.

Dividend Sustainability

No Q2 dividend was declared. The full-year forecast specifies DPS of ¥42.00. Based on forecast EPS of ¥119.19, the implied dividend payout ratio is approximately 35.2%, below the 60% sustainability benchmark. Based on forecast net income of ¥662m and average shares of approximately 5.50m, the implied full-year cash dividend requirement is approximately ¥231m. This expected distribution is well covered by forecast earnings and is modest relative to total equity of ¥6.97bn. First-half operating cash flow of ¥479m also exceeds the estimated full-year dividend requirement. However, first-half capital expenditure of ¥440m means operating cash flow after capital expenditure was only ¥39m during the investment-heavy period. The balance sheet provides ample capacity to absorb this timing difference, given ¥2.04bn of cash, low debt, and debt-to-capital of 5.4%. The sustainability of the planned dividend therefore rests primarily on delivery of the full-year earnings forecast and normalization of investment cash outflows rather than on balance-sheet capacity. No share repurchases were reported in the current period, so dividend payout ratio is the appropriate shareholder-return measure.

Risk Assessment

Business risks include Demand and volume risk: revenue fell 12.9% year on year, and the company requires a stronger second half to meet its full-year sales forecast., Operating-leverage risk: SG&A increased 2.4% despite lower revenue, producing approximately 450bp of operating-margin compression; continued weak volume would keep fixed-cost absorption under pressure., Manufacturing investment execution risk: capital expenditure of ¥440m, equal to 5.06x depreciation, requires adequate utilization and returns to justify the current investment intensity., Industry-specific manufacturing risk: input-cost inflation, supply-chain disruption, customer capital-spending cycles, product quality requirements, and warranty costs can affect gross margin and demand..

Financial risks include Cash-flow allocation risk: strict operating cash flow after capital expenditure was only ¥39m in the first half, so persistently elevated capex could temporarily constrain internally generated distributable cash., Asset-utilization risk: PPE represents 55.1% of total assets, making returns sensitive to production volumes and the productivity of the expanded asset base., Defined-benefit and retirement-obligation risk: net defined benefit liabilities of ¥181m and directors' retirement benefit provisions of ¥61m are recurring balance-sheet obligations..

Key concerns include Operating-income progress of 39.2% is 10.8 percentage points below the standard 50% first-half pace versus full-year guidance., Net-income progress of 38.2% is 11.8 percentage points below the standard first-half pace, requiring a significant second-half earnings recovery., The implied second-half operating margin of approximately 14.8% is materially above the first-half 10.9% margin., Finished-goods inventory increased year on year while revenue declined, making demand conversion and inventory discipline important indicators to monitor..

Investment Implications

Key takeaways include First-half earnings weakened materially, with revenue down 12.9%, operating income down 38.3%, and net income down 33.5%., The key earnings issue is operating leverage: SG&A rose while revenue fell, reducing the operating margin to 10.9%., Cash earnings quality remains favorable, with operating cash flow at 1.90x net income and OCF/EBITDA of 1.02x., Liquidity and solvency are exceptionally strong, supported by a 322.5% current ratio, ¥2.04bn in cash, and only 0.84x debt/EBITDA., The FY dividend plan implies a moderate 35.2% payout ratio and appears supported by earnings capacity and the balance sheet., The full-year forecast embeds a substantial second-half recovery in both sales and profitability..

Metrics to watch include Quarterly revenue trajectory relative to the ¥7.55bn full-year forecast, Operating-margin recovery from the first-half 10.9% level toward the implied 14.8% second-half level, SG&A growth relative to sales growth and the resulting SG&A-to-sales ratio, Gross-margin trend following the first-half decline to 34.4%, Capital expenditure, depreciation, and operating cash flow after capital expenditure, Finished-goods inventory trend, production utilization, and warranty-provision movements, Delivery of forecast net income of ¥662m and the planned ¥42.00 full-year DPS.

Regarding relative positioning, The company is financially defensive relative to typical capital-intensive manufacturers, with very high liquidity, low leverage, and exceptionally strong interest coverage. Its operating profitability remains within the generally good 8-15% margin range at 10.9%, but the year-on-year deterioration and annualized ROE of 7.2% place greater emphasis on execution of the anticipated second-half margin recovery.