baby calendar Inc. FY2025 Q3 Earnings Report

Financial Highlights

• Net Sales: ¥1.40B
• Operating Income: ¥146M
• Net Income: ¥82M
• EPS: ¥92.60

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Profitability Ratios

Year-over-Year Comparison

Share Information

Dividend Information

Full Year Forecast

Disclaimer

This data was automatically extracted from XBRL files. Please refer to the original disclosure documents for accuracy.

AI Financial Analysis

Executive Summary

BabyCalendar Co., Ltd. (73630) reported strong topline and earnings momentum for FY2025 Q3 on a non-consolidated JGAAP basis, with revenue of ¥1,396 million (+27.9% YoY) and operating income of ¥146 million (+396.1% YoY). Net income rose to ¥82 million (+203.4% YoY), translating to EPS of ¥92.60. Profitability improved meaningfully, evidenced by a reported gross margin of 51.9% and an operating margin of 10.5%, indicating material SG&A efficiency and operating leverage. DuPont analysis shows ROE at 10.34%, driven by a 5.87% net margin, asset turnover of 0.847x, and financial leverage of 2.08x. Liquidity is adequate but not abundant, with a current ratio of 108.6% and working capital of ¥55.8 million; this suggests close management of receivables and payables is important as the business scales. The balance sheet shows total assets of ¥1,648 million and total equity of ¥793 million; based on these, the implied equity ratio is approximately 48.1%, despite a reported equity ratio field of 0.0% (likely unreported in XBRL). Ordinary income of ¥139 million and minimal interest expense (¥0.399 million) yield a very high interest coverage ratio of ~366x, underscoring low financial burden. The implied effective tax rate is low (~2% using income tax/ordinary income), though JGAAP line-item classifications or non-recurring items may influence this. Cash flow statements are unreported (all zeros), so operating cash flow and free cash flow quality cannot be assessed from this dataset. No dividends were paid (DPS ¥0), consistent with reinvestment priorities or liquidity preservation. The combination of strong revenue growth and outsized profit growth indicates significant operating leverage and margin expansion in the period. However, the mismatch between reported cost of sales and gross profit suggests classification differences; we rely on the reported gross profit and margin for profitability assessment. Overall, the company appears to be executing a recovery/expansion phase with improving efficiency, moderate leverage, and adequate short-term liquidity, though cash flow disclosure is lacking in this dataset.

Profitability Analysis

ROE_decomposition: Reported ROE 10.34% = Net margin 5.87% × Asset turnover 0.847 × Leverage 2.08. Net income ¥82m on revenue ¥1,396m implies solid profitability for a content/platform model. Asset turnover of 0.847x indicates moderate capital intensity. Leverage at ~2.08x (Assets/Equity) provides a measured ROE boost without excessive balance-sheet risk. margin_quality: Reported gross margin 51.9% (gross profit ¥724m). Operating margin 10.5% (¥146m/¥1,396m). Ordinary margin 10.0% (¥139m/¥1,396m). Net margin 5.9% (¥82m/¥1,396m). Note: Cost of Sales (¥367m) does not reconcile arithmetically with reported gross profit; we prioritize the reported gross profit and margin, suggesting certain direct costs may be classified outside COGS under JGAAP. operating_leverage: Operating income +396.1% YoY vs revenue +27.9% YoY demonstrates strong operating leverage via SG&A efficiency and scale benefits. Interest burden is de minimis (interest expense ¥0.399m), so incremental revenue largely flows through to ordinary income. Continued margin gains will depend on cost discipline versus growth investments.

Growth Assessment

revenue_sustainability: Revenue grew +27.9% YoY to ¥1,396m, indicating solid demand/monetization. Sustainability will hinge on user growth, advertiser budgets, and product mix within parenting/health-related services amid a structurally declining birthrate in Japan. profit_quality: Profit expansion outpaced sales (OP +396.1%, NI +203.4%), implying better unit economics and fixed-cost absorption. The low implied tax rate (~2%) may not be recurring. Lack of cash flow data prevents validation of earnings-to-cash conversion. outlook: With improved margins and adequate leverage, the company appears positioned to continue scaling if the top line holds. Key swing factors are advertising/marketing demand, customer concentration, and any new service launches or partnerships that enhance ARPU and repeat revenue.

Financial Health

liquidity: Current assets ¥708.2m vs current liabilities ¥652.4m yield a current ratio of 1.09x and working capital of ¥55.8m. Quick ratio reported equal to current ratio (inventories unreported), suggesting a service/light-inventory model. Liquidity is adequate but tight; execution requires careful working-capital management. solvency: Total liabilities ¥854.4m vs equity ¥793.0m imply a debt-to-equity (liabilities-to-equity) of ~1.08x. Interest expense is minimal, and interest coverage is ~366x, indicating low near-term solvency risk. capital_structure: Assets ¥1,648m and equity ¥793m imply an equity ratio around 48.1% (despite a reported 0.0% field). Leverage (Assets/Equity) of 2.08x is moderate and supportive of ROE without excessive risk.

Cash Flow Quality

earnings_quality: Unable to assess OCF/NI or accrual intensity as operating cash flow is unreported in this dataset. Accrual risks typical for media/platform models (receivables timing, advance billings) should be monitored. FCF_analysis: Free cash flow is unreported. Capex and D&A are unspecified (D&A field shows 0, likely undisclosed), limiting insight into maintenance vs. growth investment needs. working_capital: Working capital is positive at ¥55.8m; with revenue scale-up, collection cycles and payables terms will be critical for cash conversion. No inventory balances are reported, consistent with an asset-light model.

Dividend Sustainability

payout_ratio_assessment: DPS is ¥0 and payout ratio is 0%, consistent with reinvestment or balance-sheet strengthening during a growth/expansion phase. FCF_coverage: Not assessable; FCF is unreported. In absence of OCF/Capex visibility, dividend capacity cannot be evaluated quantitatively. policy_outlook: Given the growth-driven earnings profile and tight but adequate liquidity, a conservative dividend stance appears consistent near term. Future distributions will depend on sustained profitability and demonstrable cash generation.

Risk Assessment

Business Risks:

• Exposure to Japan’s declining birthrate affecting addressable market growth
• Dependence on advertising/marketing budgets and cyclical client demand
• Customer concentration risk with key advertisers or partners
• Platform algorithm and traffic-dependency risks impacting user acquisition
• Content liability and regulatory compliance in health/parenting information
• Execution risk in developing new services and monetization channels

Financial Risks:

• Tight liquidity (current ratio ~1.09x) amid rapid growth requiring working-capital funding
• Cash flow visibility is limited due to unreported OCF/FCF
• Potential volatility in receivables collections and payables management
• Low but present interest rate/refinancing risk if liabilities include short-term borrowings
• Uncertainty around effective tax rate normalization from a low implied level (~2%)

Key Concerns:

• Lack of disclosed cash flow statements impedes assessment of earnings quality and dividend capacity
• Discrepancy between reported gross profit and cost of sales suggests classification differences, complicating margin analysis
• Sustaining high growth against demographic headwinds and potential ad market softness

Investment Implications

Key Takeaways:

• Robust revenue growth (+27.9% YoY) with outsized operating income growth (+396.1% YoY) evidences strong operating leverage
• Healthy profitability profile: gross margin 51.9%, operating margin 10.5%, net margin 5.9%
• ROE of 10.34% supported by moderate leverage (Assets/Equity 2.08x) and asset-light characteristics (no inventory reported)
• Liquidity adequate but tight (current ratio ~1.09x; working capital ¥55.8m), requiring disciplined working-capital management
• Interest burden is minimal (interest coverage ~366x), lowering solvency risk
• Cash flow data unreported; cash conversion and FCF durability remain key unknowns
• Reported COGS and gross profit mismatch indicates reliance on reported margin figures rather than reconstructing COGS

Metrics to Watch:

• Operating cash flow and OCF/Net income ratio
• Free cash flow after maintenance capex
• Receivable days, payable days, and working-capital swings
• SG&A ratio and operating margin progression
• Revenue growth by product/segment and share of recurring revenue
• Effective tax rate normalization
• Liabilities mix and short-term debt refinancing needs

Relative Positioning: Within Japanese small-cap digital media/services, BabyCalendar exhibits above-peer revenue growth and sharp margin recovery with moderate leverage and light asset intensity; however, transparency on cash generation is below average given unreported cash flow data in this period.

Disclaimer

This analysis was auto-generated by AI. Please note the following:

• No Guarantee of Accuracy: The accuracy and completeness of this analysis are not guaranteed. For accurate financial data, please refer to the original disclosure documents published on TDnet or other official sources
• Not Investment Advice: This analysis is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice under applicable securities laws. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities
• At Your Own Risk: Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk. We assume no liability for any losses incurred based on this analysis