TABIKOBO Co.Ltd. FY2026 Q1 Earnings Report

Financial Highlights

• Net Sales: ¥1.64B
• Operating Income: ¥72M
• Net Income: ¥3M
• EPS: ¥4.57

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Profitability Ratios

Year-over-Year Comparison

Share Information

Dividend Information

Full Year Forecast

Disclaimer

This data was automatically extracted from XBRL files. Please refer to the original disclosure documents for accuracy.

AI Financial Analysis

Executive Summary

For FY2026 Q1, Tabikobo (TSE: 6548) delivered strong top-line growth with revenue of ¥1,641 million, up 58.7% YoY, indicating robust travel demand recovery and/or effective sales execution. Despite the surge in revenue, operating income was ¥72 million, flat YoY, signaling margin compression and limited operating leverage in the quarter. Gross profit was reported at ¥246.7 million, implying a gross margin of roughly 15.0%, which is modest for an agency/intermediary business and suggests elevated cost of fulfillment or higher pass-through mix. Ordinary income was ¥75 million and net income was ¥90 million, with net income exceeding ordinary income, likely reflecting non-operating or extraordinary positives and a very low tax burden. The effective tax rate is effectively 0% this quarter, supporting bottom-line resilience. Interest expense was modest at ¥1.13 million, and interest coverage is strong at 63.5x based on operating income, implying low near-term financing pressure. On the balance sheet, total assets stood at ¥3,552 million and total equity at ¥709 million, implying an equity-to-asset ratio around 20% even though the reported equity ratio shows as 0% (likely unreported rather than zero). Current assets of ¥3,444 million versus current liabilities of ¥2,566 million translate to a current ratio of 134.2% and working capital of ¥878 million, providing reasonable short-term liquidity. The DuPont decomposition indicates a net margin of 5.48%, asset turnover of 0.462x (based on quarterly revenue versus period-end assets), and financial leverage of 5.01x, yielding a calculated ROE of 12.69%. ROE at this level is solid, but it is supported by relatively high leverage; sustainability depends on stabilizing margins and maintaining liquidity. Operating expenses (implied) are roughly ¥174.7 million (gross profit ¥246.7 million less operating income ¥72.0 million), underscoring the importance of SG&A discipline as volumes scale. Cash flow items are unreported this quarter (zeros indicate not disclosed), limiting assessment of earnings-to-cash conversion and free cash flow. Dividend distribution is currently suspended (DPS ¥0, payout ratio 0%), consistent with a focus on rebuilding profitability and balance sheet strength. There is an internal inconsistency between cost of sales and gross profit as presented; given the stated 15.0% gross margin aligns with reported gross profit, the gross profit margin figures are used as the anchor for analysis. Overall, the quarter shows clear demand recovery but limited drop-through to operating profit, highlighting the need to manage product mix and costs as travel volumes normalize. Key watchpoints include pricing power, supplier terms, yen volatility impacts on travel demand and costs, and working capital swings in a seasonally volatile industry.

Profitability Analysis

ROE decomposition (DuPont) shows: net profit margin 5.48% × asset turnover 0.462 × financial leverage 5.01 = ROE 12.69%. Net margin of 5.48% (¥90m NI on ¥1,641m revenue) is supported by very low taxes and low interest expense; structurally, operating margin is much thinner at 4.39% (¥72m OI on ¥1,641m revenue). Gross margin is 15.0% based on reported figures, which is modest and suggests either high pass-through components or competitive pricing pressure; improving mix (e.g., higher-margin packages, ancillary services) is a lever. Operating leverage appears weak this quarter: revenue rose 58.7% YoY but operating income was flat, implying that SG&A and other operating costs expanded with volume and offset gross profit gains. Interest coverage is strong at 63.5x, indicating financing costs are not constraining profitability. Ordinary income (¥75m) being above operating income (¥72m) suggests small positive non-operating contributions. The discrepancy between reported cost of sales and gross profit suggests relying on the provided gross margin for margin analysis. Overall, profitability is acceptable at the bottom line due to non-operating/tax effects, but core operating profitability requires improvement to convert top-line momentum into sustained ROE without reliance on leverage.

Growth Assessment

Revenue growth of +58.7% YoY to ¥1,641m indicates strong demand recovery and/or market share gains. However, profit growth did not accompany sales growth: operating income was flat at ¥72m, and net income was also flat at ¥90m, implying margin dilution versus last year. The flat operating income despite higher sales suggests elevated cost to serve, higher supplier costs, or deliberate market share investment. Net income outpacing operating income (and effectively zero taxes) helped preserve bottom-line levels, but this may not be recurring. Sustainability of revenue growth will depend on travel capacity, FX (yen weakness can cut outbound demand but support inbound and domestic alternatives), and geopolitical/health conditions affecting routes and destinations. Mix improvement and yield management are key to restoring operating leverage as volumes scale. With asset turnover at 0.462x on a quarterly basis, scale benefits could improve if working capital is efficiently managed and volume persists; note that quarterly turnover metrics are seasonally sensitive. Near-term outlook hinges on pricing power, supplier terms (air and hotel), and cost discipline to prevent SG&A from rising in line with sales. Given limited visibility on cash flows this quarter, conversion of revenue growth into cash will be a critical validation point in subsequent quarters.

Financial Health

Liquidity appears adequate: current assets ¥3,444m vs current liabilities ¥2,566m produce a current ratio of 134.2% and working capital of ¥878m. The quick ratio matches the current ratio given inventories are unreported; prudently, we treat this as a positive but not conclusive signal. Total liabilities are ¥3,101m against equity of ¥709m, yielding a debt-to-equity proxy of 4.37x and financial leverage of 5.01x (assets/equity). This leverage boosts ROE but reduces balance sheet flexibility if conditions worsen. Interest expense is low (¥1.13m), and interest coverage is robust at 63.5x, suggesting manageable debt service under current rates and earnings. The reported equity ratio of 0% is likely an unreported field; calculated equity-to-asset ratio is about 20% (¥709m/¥3,552m). Short-term obligations dominate (current liabilities ¥2,566m), typical for travel agencies with large payables and advances; this heightens sensitivity to working capital swings. Overall solvency is acceptable but contingent on stable cash collections and supplier payment cycles.

Cash Flow Quality

Operating, investing, and financing cash flows are unreported for the quarter, so OCF/NI and FCF cannot be meaningfully assessed despite a mechanical OCF/NI of 0.00. Earnings quality therefore cannot be validated via cash conversion this period. Given the business model, working capital timing (customer advances, payables to airlines/hotels) can materially swing OCF quarter to quarter; positive NI alongside negative OCF in peak booking periods would not be unusual. With operating income flat and gross margin modest, the durability of earnings will be better judged once OCF is disclosed. Free cash flow is not available; capex intensity is typically low for agencies, but technology investments and deposits can affect cash. Key proxy indicators to monitor include changes in receivables, contract liabilities (advances), and payables turnover in subsequent filings.

Dividend Sustainability

The company did not pay a dividend this quarter (DPS ¥0; payout ratio 0%), consistent with balance sheet rebuilding and growth reinvestment. With ROE at 12.69% and leverage elevated, retaining earnings to strengthen equity appears prudent. FCF data are not disclosed; hence, FCF coverage of any future dividends cannot be assessed. If operating leverage improves and cash conversion proves stable, the capacity to resume dividends would increase; until then, policy likely prioritizes liquidity and reinvestment. We will look for management commentary on capital allocation, especially thresholds for reinstating dividends versus deleveraging.

Risk Assessment

Business Risks:

• Demand volatility due to macro conditions, pandemics, and geopolitical events affecting travel routes
• FX risk (yen volatility) impacting outbound affordability and supplier pricing
• Supplier capacity and pricing (airlines/hotels) compressing margins
• Competitive pressure from OTAs and direct booking channels
• Seasonality leading to revenue and working capital swings
• Regulatory/visa changes affecting destination accessibility

Financial Risks:

• High leverage (D/E ~4.37x; assets/equity 5.01x) amplifies downside in downturns
• Concentration in short-term liabilities increases rollover and liquidity timing risk
• Margins are thin (gross margin ~15%, operating margin ~4.4%), limiting buffer for shocks
• Reliance on favorable tax/non-operating items to sustain net income
• Limited visibility on cash flows this quarter due to unreported CF statements

Key Concerns:

• Operating leverage absent despite 58.7% YoY revenue growth
• Sustainability of near-zero effective tax rate supporting net income
• Working capital sensitivity in a rapid growth phase without disclosed OCF
• Internal inconsistency between reported cost of sales and gross profit; margin analysis anchored to provided gross margin

Investment Implications

Key Takeaways:

• Strong top-line recovery (+58.7% YoY) but flat operating and net income indicate margin pressure
• ROE of 12.69% is acceptable but partly leverage-driven (assets/equity 5.01x)
• Liquidity is reasonable (current ratio 134.2%; working capital ¥878m), but short-term liabilities are large
• Interest burden is light (coverage 63.5x), providing cushion despite leverage
• Cash flow not disclosed; earnings quality assessment deferred to subsequent quarters

Metrics to Watch:

• Gross margin and operating margin progression as volumes scale
• SG&A-to-sales ratio and efficiency initiatives
• Working capital movements: receivables, advances/contract liabilities, and payables
• Operating cash flow and free cash flow once disclosed
• FX trends and pricing power in key routes/destinations
• Effective tax rate normalization and impact on net margin

Relative Positioning: Within Japan’s travel intermediaries, the company shows robust revenue recovery but weaker operating leverage versus best-in-class peers, with acceptable ROE supported by higher financial leverage and adequate near-term liquidity.

Disclaimer

This analysis was auto-generated by AI. Please note the following:

• No Guarantee of Accuracy: The accuracy and completeness of this analysis are not guaranteed. For accurate financial data, please refer to the original disclosure documents published on TDnet or other official sources
• Not Investment Advice: This analysis is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice under applicable securities laws. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities
• At Your Own Risk: Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk. We assume no liability for any losses incurred based on this analysis